On June 24, when the United Kingdom referendum declared its independence from the EU, many people regretted. Some of the "European" constituency in the United Kingdom gathered in front of the Parliament building against the United Kingdom out of the EU.
Although comeback chances, but they insist on the Internet was involved in "the second referendum", hoping to change the results Safe Supply. According to another news agency, the latest news, EU Commission Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said, United Kingdom should immediately when it is planned outside the EU. But when talking about how long the peace talks, United Kingdom process exit time table remains uncertain.
Thus, while United Kingdom exit right now at the forefront of world public opinion, and when the United Kingdom started after you exit there for a long time, but still be rational for the Chinese textile and garment enterprises estimate and judge on the trade situation and trends. In this connection, an interview with reporters for the first time the China textile import and export Chamber of Commerce, the China textile industry Association International Trade Office and the heads of relevant organizations, as well as to British exports from January to May this year ranked top 30 business leaders, listen to their United Kingdom exit effect on trade of textile and apparel enterprises in China forecasts and trend analysis.
United Kingdom is China's textile clothing export to EU market
Get the latest statistics of the Chinese customs showed that January 2016 to May, China's textile and clothing to the United Kingdom exports amounting to 4.2 billion dollars, compared with the same period last year grew by 3%, Chinese textiles and clothing since the United Kingdom imports amounted to us $ 76.34 million, compared with the same period last year grew close to 1%. January 2016 to May, on China and the global textile and apparel imports per cent declined, imports fell 11% exports close to 2%. Meanwhile, in January 2016 to May, Chinese exports to the EU total 17.47 billion dollars, a drop of 3.9%, average export price decreased by 6.6%.
In this regard, the China textile import and export Chamber of Commerce Vice President Zhang Xian said: "January 2016 to May decline in Chinese exports to the EU and even the global situation, the United Kingdom remains a 3% growth is no surprise. In recent years, the United Kingdom of textiles and garments in the EU has become China's largest market, is also relatively stable markets. Through nearly 20 years of China's United Kingdom textile and clothing export statistics, China United Kingdom upward trend of exports has been increasing year by year. A group global market accounted for than data compared also can confirmed this is: 2016 years Qian May, China on United Kingdom textiles clothing exports accounted for on global total exports of proportion is 4.16%, in China export market ranking in the column 5th bit; 2015, in the British textiles clothing trade up 12.63 billion dollars, which on United Kingdom exports accounted for China on global exports of 4.37%, in China export market ranking in the still at 5th bit; and in 2014, China United Kingdom textile and clothing exports is 3.86% per cent of total exports in China ranks 6th in the export market. ”
According to reporters from the China textile import and export Chamber of Commerce get January 2016 to May, China United Kingdom textile and clothing export enterprises the top 30 list: Guangzhou textiles import and export Group Corporation United Kingdom exports reached US $ 23.988 million, an increase of 316.25%; Chi-Shun, Shunde district, Foshan City, Guangdong Province silk import and export Co Ltd to the United Kingdom with exports amounting to us $ 12.062 million, an increase of 290.1%; Li Kun in Tianjin import and export Co Ltd to the United Kingdom exports reached 1083.1, an increase of 367.32% million dollars. These 3 companies between January 2016 May United Kingdom export trade volume has doubled compared with a few comments. In this regard, the Guangzhou garment industry Association Secretary-General Wu Zhenghong, told reporters: "the United Kingdom number of imported textile and apparel accounted for more than half of the total market, United Kingdom textile and clothing imports from China increase is particularly significant. Since the international financial crisis, bilateral trade between China and EU countries, 1th Sino-British bilateral trade growth, United Kingdom has advocated strengthening economic and trade relations with China. United Kingdom considered advocated the liberalization of trade and investment within the European Union the most active countries, although foreign trade laws, adoption of EU common policies, but on the whole United Kingdom Government enterprises from countries outside the EU imports or exports without too many restrictions for China's textile and clothing exports United Kingdom created a good business environment. ”
To sum up, in British textiles and clothing trade is in a honeymoon period, United Kingdom will exit to the glue-British industry collaboration increase crack it? is more good than harm, and is doing more harm than good?
Leon: pound sterling benefits exports increased short-term profits
First, the United Kingdom exit requires a long process of negotiations, effects appear longer.
Wu Zhenghong said: "the United Kingdom proposed exit timetable, will face a long legal process, Chinese exporters need not be too anxious and worried. Out of the EU's main focus on the 50th article of the Lisbon Treaty, this regulation only describes the regulations of EU Member States outside the EU, and without warning. Once the 50th start, United Kingdom and the European Union may have two years of negotiations, United Kingdom and the European Union's trade agreement may be renegotiated, which finalised rules may take several years. ”
Secondly, out of the EU, the "made in China" into the United Kingdom market more open.
Whether from the United Kingdom first to join Asia Investment Bank, also was the first to set up an offshore RMB Centre, United Kingdom China free trade tendency was stronger than many continental European countries. "The United Kingdom after the exit, does not rule out the possibility of separately signed a free trade agreement with China. United Kingdom as early as a few years ago in support of China and the EU signed a free trade agreement, because of the high trade deficit with China, other Member States argue that China should be first on the EU to relax investment and expansion of services trade liberalization, and to sign a free trade agreement. If the United Kingdom and China will sign a free trade agreement, under its influence, China and the EU signed a free trade agreement likely will increase. "China's textile industry Federation Liu Yaozhong, Deputy Director of the Office of international trade, told reporters. At a press conference, joint free trade agreement was signed, under the influence of the demonstration effect, the EU does not rule out open bilateral negotiations with China, even the possibility of zero tariff, the "made in China" into the United Kingdom market more open.
Third, China's textile and clothing in the United Kingdom will expand market share, share will gradually increase.
At present, the United Kingdom Middle is mainly dependent on imports of textiles and clothing. Liu Yaozhong said: "the United Kingdom off Europe affected, Sterling led to English weak consumer purchasing power. However, due to China's textiles and apparel affordable, cost-effective, in the United Kingdom market accounted for a larger proportion, so that in the future would stimulate China's textile and clothing exports in the period, thus expanding in the United Kingdom's market share, increasing market share. "The British textile and garment exports ranked top 30 Guangzhou textile industrial Union Chairman Feng Guoxian, told reporters:" we are actively under United Kingdom current clothing market demand, as well as seasonal trend features export of marketable fashion, small profits but quick turnover, loss of control orders. ”
Finally, dollar, dollar, corporate profits increased significantly in the short term.
Jiangsu guotai international group huasheng IMP among top 30 for British exports, business manager of the company who asked not to be named, said: "we and United Kingdom customers is in dollars. Pound sterling, the dollar, the devaluation of the Renminbi, Chinese exporters, because exporters earn in dollars, from short-term effects, actual profits on the rise. "In recent years, as the Yuan appreciation pressure on the foreign trade enterprises as well. "The devaluation of the pound, devaluation of the renminbi is conducive to export, but it reflects more on stock orders. Yet in the settlement of orders entered into in previous, present at high levels in the settlement can make exchange rate difference. Say short, because if the pound is continuing to fall, United Kingdom customers will require renegotiation. "Zhang Xian added to reporters:" in the long run, after Greece economic crisis and the United Kingdom after the exit event, the devaluation of the euro would lead to increase the internationalization of RMB, China's economic status will also be improved. ”
The bad: weak trade does not facilitate investment into the UK or
First, the United Kingdom textile and clothing production shifting away from China to other countries may accelerate the progress of.
On United Kingdom textiles clothing export ranked Qian 30 strong of Jiangsu Su beauty up textile international trade limited General Manager Fan Wenye to reporter said has concerns: "United Kingdom off Europe makes pounds and Euro sharply lower, United Kingdom from overseas procurement textiles clothing of range will will received narrow, United Kingdom procurement China products of wishes will will passed on to other production cost more low of Southeast Asia or African national, such will weakened China textiles clothing export enterprise of price competitiveness. While Chinese companies can also make a corresponding price adjustment strategies, but after all, the mechanism of adjustment will take some time, also need to accept customer response. "United Kingdom textile and clothing production shifting away from China to other countries may accelerate the progress of.
Second, the Sino-British bilateral trade agreement could face renewed negotiations, many factors beyond their control.
Guangdong provincial textile industry Association Secretary-General Wu Hong is very disturbed. She said: "Guangdong textile and garment enterprises to the United Kingdom ranked exports more than half of the top 30. United Kingdom off to Europe, could face a renegotiation of the bilateral trade agreement, many factors beyond their control. If the tariff increase, China United Kingdom textile and clothing exports is extremely negative. "Feng Guoxian says:" from the United Kingdom since the exit, we now have United Kingdom customers reduced orders of intention, is expected to have more future United Kingdom customers reduced orders. In the long term, currency fluctuations exports United Kingdom orders, price changes in profit margins, the United Kingdom will also increase the cost and risk of the export trade. ”
Third, United Kingdom off let go cause of Central Europe and the European Union to facilitate trade greatly diminished.
Feng Guoxian of the Sino-British trade facilitation is also greatly reduced. Under the EU customs system, goods in and out of the European Union does not need to be repeated many times to go through customs and tax formalities, United Kingdom from the European Union was formed after two independent systems, combined with the exit of the customs duties, exchange rates, rising costs of customs formalities as well as logistics, late of foreign trade enterprises in China's textile and garment exports to the European Union cost is bound to rise. "In the past because the United Kingdom import declaration policy relatively loose, Fax Machine Supply which is largely played the role of logistics hub in Europe, European goods through the United Kingdom exported overseas, overseas goods, often through the United Kingdom into Europe. "Wu Zhenghong explained to reporters.
Under the United Kingdom Treasury's analysis, United Kingdom after the exit, because the United Kingdom's ties with the EU, United Kingdom's relations with third countries need to rebuild within 2 years to 15 years. China and the United Kingdom, the relationship between the European Union through negotiations of the agreement may be signed again, this Sino-British and Sino-European trade and investment between the more companies will be a larger impact.
Finally, currency devaluation led to United Kingdom to attract foreign capital will gradually shrink, China's investment into the UK variable.
Wu Zhenghong, said industry and trade chains, dependence on each other from both sides, United Kingdom dependent on EU than the EU United Kingdom dependencies. In recent years, China United Kingdom investment expanding depth and breadth, if United Kingdom exit, China is expected to be lower in the United Kingdom long-term investment because China will not be able to use United Kingdom and channel with access to the EU market. Meanwhile, other countries have similar action will be taken based on the same considerations. "However, may also be Chinese companies would use the machine of the devaluation of the pound and the euro, opportunistic bargain-United Kingdom market, this opportunity to invest in effect cannot be ignored. "Zhang Xian said.